Is 2008 when it happens?

Money Week, a website based in the UK, has an interesting article about the housing market. The claim is that the market cycles globally every 18 years and that we are due to hit bottom in 2008 resulting in a recession by 2010. It’s been said for a while that the bubble is about to burst, but it’s interesting that history does seem to repeat itself… We still have not entered the world of home ownership so the reduction in prices and an increase in inventory sounds nice!

“House prices can’t rise indefinitely for the simple reason that at some point they become unaffordable. Wages can’t rise as fast as house prices can when a speculative frenzy is underway, so there will come a point when the average man can’t buy the average house, and prices have to fall as a result. My research shows that this tends to work in 18-year cycles. There are usually 14 years of rising prices followed by four years of recession across the broader economy. I’ve looked at data across four continents and at 300 years of British economic history and it seems that this 18-year cycle is present across the globe, irrespective of the distinctive characteristics of each economy – whether the country is resource-rich (USA) or resource-poor (Japan), or whether the population is high density (the UK), or low density (Australia).

So when will the crunch really come? History suggests that things will start to collapse in 2008 (18 years on from 1990 when the last bubble burst)…the net result will be the arrival of recession by 2010…”

—Fred Harrison is executive director of the Land Research Trust in London.He is the author of Boom, Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010 (Shepheard Walwyn, 2005)

Club Penguin

Club Penguin is Hunter’s and Emma’s favorite place to go online. It’s a great site for kids because it is so safe and there is zero advertising. The kids can sign up for a monthly fee and then live in the virtual penguin world. They have to “work” to earn coins and then they can spend the coins to buy things to decorate their igloos or for their pet “puffles.” The puffles have to be fed, exercised etc., and Hunter gets so bugged when he has to use his coins to buy them food. I like it because he’s learning about how the financial world works, except that work is actually playing games and more like fun. Hunter and Emma use their allowance to pay for the membership fee, so that’s another way they can practice their financial skills. The penguins can also have monitored interaction or chat with the other penguin friends. Hunter and his school friend have figured out times to meet online and they can chat and play together. Club Penguin recently announced that they are partnering up with Disney, so you may hear more about it now…

The Last Lecture

I have a second cousin, Tammy, who I really don’t know. But I am learning about her through her blog that documents her family’s current situation. Her husband Bryce was diagnosed with melanoma at age 26 as the result of years of lifeguarding in the sun. After a year of treatment he was said to be cancer-free. Now six years later, he and Tammy have been married for four years, and 8 weeks ago he was told that his cancer had returned with a vengeance. Their lives have been turned completely upside down as they struggle with finding new treatments, dealing with oxygen, blood transfusions, trips in and out of the hospital, and their baby girl. I have read her blog, cried, and reminded myself how lucky I am to have the blessing of a healthy family, a loving husband and four fantastic, beautiful children. We just never know what tomorrow will bring, and I have learned so much from her family. I so appreciate that she is willing to share her experiences with us.

With all of these thoughts in the back of my mind I was moved when I heard the story of Randy Pausch, a computer science professor who recently gave his last lecture. He was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and has just months left to live. His lecture is inspirational and embodies all of the things that he wants his three small children to know about their Dad. I am truly amazed at the grace I have seen in these two families as I have peeked into their lives. Their bravery and stamina is stunning.

Hug your family, spend time together and appreciate them… and then go put on some sunscreen!

httpvh://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8kUTUIveyA

I Think She Likes It

Thank you!!!

Emma just loves her new American Girl Doll. Thanks so much to all that contributed to get her this group gift! She was so excited when she opened it, and hasn’t put it down except to sleep. And even then, the doll slept next to her in the little brass bed that Auntie Heather gave her. She stayed home from school today because she woke up with a “stomach ache” supposedly after eating all of the birthday treats. I think it was more of an American-Girl-ache. One clue is that she just said to me, “I don’t want to go to school tomorrow. I just want to stay home with my American Girl doll!” She will go tomorrow though. Emma has been filling out the little book that came with the doll she has named “Emy.” Emma also said earlier this morning, “I wouldn’t give up my doll for all the money in the world. Because everybody put their love into it.”

Toddler Talk

If you ever ask Hannah what her favorite ride was at Disneyland, she will always say, “Duh gondolas.” We rode on a ferris wheel at California Adventure that had the choice of a stationary or swinging gondola. I took the little girls on the stationary one and Rob took the big kids on the swinging one. I don’t know if it was the ride or the word that made the big impression on her, but she mentions the gondolas just about every day!

Sabrina’s favorite thing right now is Barbies. Or as she says, “Bah-ees.” She just can’t seem to get enough and carries them around with her whenever she gets the chance. Hannah is also very into them, but Sabrina is our first girl to take such an interest at such a young age. She has that mommy instinct for sure, and loves all things baby too. She is constantly bringing me little blankets and wanting her Barbies or babies swaddled up. Such cuties!

Honorable, Happy, Successful Marriage

Before continuing on with my “how we met story” I thought it appropriate to take a break and share a lesson from church about having a successful marriage. I read through the lesson yesterday thinking it would be today’s presentation at church. Fortunately for me, things were rearranged so it will be next week. I spent that time in the nursery with Sabrina this week, so I missed today’s class. (Sabrina has been in the nursery class for a few weeks now, and I think we may be able to leave her there soon without too much fuss. So far she has liked having a parent as a wall flower, Just so she feels safe. We don’t mind though, she’s so cute!)

I loved this lesson from Spencer W Kimball. He is very straightforward and there are so many things in here that I think everyone contemplating marriage should read. And of course those of us who are already married should read through it and take a personal inventory.

“Marriage is perhaps the most vital of all the decisions and has the most far-reaching effects, for it has to do not only with immediate happiness, but also with eternal joys. It affects not only the two people involved, but also their families and particularly their children and their children’s children down through the many generations…

Two individuals approaching the marriage altar must realize that to attain the happy marriage which they hope for they must know that marriage is not a legal coverall, but it means sacrifice, sharing, and even a reduction of some personal liberties. It means long, hard economizing. It means children who bring with them financial burdens, service burdens, care and worry burdens; but also it means the deepest and sweetest emotions of all…

The mere performance of a ceremony does not bring happiness and a successful marriage. Happiness does not come by pressing a button, as does the electric light; happiness is a state of mind and comes from within. It must be earned. It cannot be purchased with money; it cannot be taken for nothing.

Some think of happiness as a glamorous life of ease, luxury, and constant thrills; but true marriage is based on a happiness which is more than that, one which comes from giving, serving, sharing, sacrificing, and selflessness…

Two people coming from different backgrounds learn soon after the ceremony is performed that stark reality must be faced. There is no longer a life of fantasy or of make-believe; we must come out of the clouds and put our feet firmly on the earth. Responsibility must be assumed and new duties must be accepted. Some personal freedoms must be relinquished, and many adjustments, unselfish adjustments, must be made.

One comes to realize very soon after marriage that the spouse has weaknesses not previously revealed or discovered. The virtues which were constantly magnified during courtship now grow relatively smaller, and the weaknesses which seemed so small and insignificant during courtship now grow to sizable proportions. The hour has come for understanding hearts, for self-appraisal, and for good common sense, reasoning, and planning…

Total unselfishness is sure to accomplish another factor in successful marriage. If one is forever seeking the interests, comforts, and happiness of the other, the love found in courtship and cemented in marriage will grow into mighty proportions. …Certainly the foods most vital for love are consideration, kindness, thoughtfulness, concern, expressions of affection, embraces of appreciation, admiration, pride, companionship, confidence, faith, partnership, equality, and interdependence.

There is a never-failing formula which will guarantee to every couple a happy and eternal marriage; but like all formulas, the principal ingredients must not be left out, reduced, or limited. The selection before courting and then the continued courting after the marriage process are equally important, but not more important than the marriage itself, the success of which depends upon the two individuals—not upon one, but upon two.

In a marriage commenced and based upon reasonable standards …, there are not combinations of power which can destroy it except the power within either or both of the spouses themselves; and they must assume the responsibility generally. Other people and agencies may influence for good or bad. Financial, social, political, and other situations may seem to have a bearing; but the marriage depends first and always on the two spouses who can always make their marriage successful and happy if they are determined, unselfish, and righteous.

The formula is simple; the ingredients are few, though there are many amplifications of each.

First, there must be the proper approach toward marriage, which contemplates the selection of a spouse who reaches as nearly as possible the pinnacle of perfection in all the matters which are of importance to the individuals. And then those two parties must come to the altar in the temple realizing that they must work hard toward this successful joint living.

Second, there must be a great unselfishness, forgetting self and directing all of the family life and all pertaining thereunto to the good of the family, subjugating self.

Third, there must be continued courting and expressions of affection, kindness, and consideration to keep love alive and growing.

Fourth, there must be a complete living of the commandments of the Lord as defined in the gospel of Jesus Christ.

With these ingredients properly mixed and continually kept functioning, it is quite impossible for unhappiness to come, misunderstandings to continue, or breaks to occur.”

Lucky for me I am in what I consider to be a happy, successful marriage! Reading through this lesson I have seen several areas that I can improve on though. Maybe one of the easier ones would be starting with a better system for date nights. The problem is that I don’t plan ahead and get a sitter. There has been a lot of talk in my circle about date night swaps. I may have to get in on that!

How We Met

I’m a little behind, but still trying to jump on the bandwagon. My sisters-in-law have posted their “how we met” stories and so I went back and read up on mine. Yes, there was a time when I was a faithful journal writer. I would write at least every Sunday… up until I got married. Rob and I were just reading through it last night and having some laughs together.

As a bit of background: Rob and I were in the same student ward on campus. He lived in the building right next to mine. Our fire escapes faced each other… Early on in the year one of my roommates had gone on a date with Rob that didn’t go too well. Consequently, our apartment thought he was a jerk. I don’t remember the details on why we thought that, but we were girls and so had made our assessments of him based on our roommate’s story. I didn’t have any interaction with him through that fall or winter.

In the spring I had just broken up with a boyfriend and some of my friends were trying to help me get out and busy. They said they would put together a group date and find my date. That guy ended up being Rob’s roommate. The date went pretty well and not long afterwards “Guy” (name changed to protect the innocent) asked me out again. We had our second date and I thought he was really nice so I was hoping to get the word to him. Here’s what I wrote about it in my journal: “I talked to Rob, Guy’s roommate, tonight… He asked me if I had fun with Guy… (and) told me about how Guy is his favorite roommate… I said ‘I can tell he’s totally cool’… Hopefully that will get him to ask me out again because I know Rob has a big mouth.” (Rob loves to read this entry and thinks it’s hilarious. Especially because as a freshman he once had a roommate move out because he thought Rob was too quiet. Poor guy can’t win!) So our first conversation was all about how great I thought his roommate was, and him encouraging me to stay interested in him. My third date with “Guy” was a group date that Rob was also on. That date went ok, but things sort of fizzled out with me and Guy.

Over the next few weeks I started running into Rob and his two best friends more often and having a great time with them. There was about one more month left in the semester and there was plenty of drama to go around. I had friends that were annoyed with me because their apartment was a hangout for Rob and his buddies and I was showing up more and more. I thought they were feeling threatened by me and kept assuring them that I was just being friendly. And honestly, I was trying not to step on anyone’s toes, but didn’t want to completely back off. We went on a couple of group dates where we did silly things like make ice cream sculptures. On one date we did a scavenger hunt and as part of it Rob bought me a plastic angel ring. I still have it unless one of my girls has found it… but the semester came to a close with one last surprise.

I had been outside talking with Rob late into the night/ morning and came into my apartment to fall into bed. But just as I walked to my room I heard another of my roommates, Anna Marie, coming home. I was surprised because she never stayed out late and so I stopped to talk to her for a minute in the hallway. As we were talking we heard our other roommate, Kelly, who was sleeping in the other room, start saying some crazy things and we laughed that she must be having a nightmare. Then she started to sound scary like she was choking. We went in the room to wake her up and discovered that she was having a seizure! She had her head stuck between the bed and the wall and so I tried to lift her up onto the bed. It was hard to do because she was really tensed up. I then ran to call 911 while Anna Marie tried to wake her up and talk to her. My sister Erica, who was also my roommate, woke up and we all waited for the ambulance. The ambulance came but only one person could ride with Kelly, so Erica went with her and, not having a car of my own, I called Rob to drive me and Anna Marie to the hospital. He did, and stayed with us for the next few hours. We all had final exams the next day, so Rob could have easily dropped us off and gone home to sleep. But he stayed with us and I saw a calmness in him that was so comforting in a time of confusion.

I had decided to stay for the summer term to take a few classes and work full time. It also helped that I knew Rob would be doing the same. Over the break in between terms, Rob and his friends went to Las Vegas. We both missed each other a lot and when he came back we spent all of our time together. This is when we really started dating. He was happy, sweet, sincere, and my best friend. Although I had tried to convince myself that marriage was not for me right then, I completely fell for him. One of the things that made me like him even more was meeting his family. They were just happy and normal and I loved seeing how he interacted with his parents (especially his Mom), siblings, and little Dylan and Ciel. By the way, it wasn’t for show. He is still great with all of them! They are probably laughing reading this, but it’s true, his family made me love him more.

TO BE CONTINUED…