Is 2008 when it happens?

Money Week, a website based in the UK, has an interesting article about the housing market. The claim is that the market cycles globally every 18 years and that we are due to hit bottom in 2008 resulting in a recession by 2010. It’s been said for a while that the bubble is about to burst, but it’s interesting that history does seem to repeat itself… We still have not entered the world of home ownership so the reduction in prices and an increase in inventory sounds nice!

“House prices can’t rise indefinitely for the simple reason that at some point they become unaffordable. Wages can’t rise as fast as house prices can when a speculative frenzy is underway, so there will come a point when the average man can’t buy the average house, and prices have to fall as a result. My research shows that this tends to work in 18-year cycles. There are usually 14 years of rising prices followed by four years of recession across the broader economy. I’ve looked at data across four continents and at 300 years of British economic history and it seems that this 18-year cycle is present across the globe, irrespective of the distinctive characteristics of each economy – whether the country is resource-rich (USA) or resource-poor (Japan), or whether the population is high density (the UK), or low density (Australia).

So when will the crunch really come? History suggests that things will start to collapse in 2008 (18 years on from 1990 when the last bubble burst)…the net result will be the arrival of recession by 2010…”

—Fred Harrison is executive director of the Land Research Trust in London.He is the author of Boom, Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010 (Shepheard Walwyn, 2005)

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Club Penguin

Club Penguin is Hunter’s and Emma’s favorite place to go online. It’s a great site for kids because it is so safe and there is zero advertising. The kids can sign up for a monthly fee and then live in the virtual penguin world. They have to “work” to earn coins and then they can spend the coins to buy things to decorate their igloos or for their pet “puffles.” The puffles have to be fed, exercised etc., and Hunter gets so bugged when he has to use his coins to buy them food. I like it because he’s learning about how the financial world works, except that work is actually playing games and more like fun. Hunter and Emma use their allowance to pay for the membership fee, so that’s another way they can practice their financial skills. The penguins can also have monitored interaction or chat with the other penguin friends. Hunter and his school friend have figured out times to meet online and they can chat and play together. Club Penguin recently announced that they are partnering up with Disney, so you may hear more about it now…

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I Think She Likes It

Thank you!!!

Emma just loves her new American Girl Doll. Thanks so much to all that contributed to get her this group gift! She was so excited when she opened it, and hasn’t put it down except to sleep. And even then, the doll slept next to her in the little brass bed that Auntie Heather gave her. She stayed home from school today because she woke up with a “stomach ache” supposedly after eating all of the birthday treats. I think it was more of an American-Girl-ache. One clue is that she just said to me, “I don’t want to go to school tomorrow. I just want to stay home with my American Girl doll!” She will go tomorrow though. Emma has been filling out the little book that came with the doll she has named “Emy.” Emma also said earlier this morning, “I wouldn’t give up my doll for all the money in the world. Because everybody put their love into it.”

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A Very Merry Unbirthday

This messes things up a bit as far as dates go, but I just had to do a post about the Unbirthday Party we had with the cousins in Utah. We never get to celebrate with any of them because we are so far away, so I thought it would be fun to throw a party and celebrate with everyone at once. Melanie made a fancy cake and cupcakes, Heidi brought a delicious desserty fruit salad, Korby brought pinatas and goody bags, and Heather drove the 45 minutes with her 7 kids to be there too! We had a picnic dinner and the kids played in the park in between eating, hitting the pinatas, and opening presents. It was so much fun! Adler got stomp rockets that the kids had to try out right then, and we had a couple of rescue missions to get them off of roofs and out of trees. We’ll have to do it again!

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Disneyland ’07

We had such a fun, hot, full, exhausting day at Disneyland yesterday! Rob was able to get a small discount through his office so we went for the park hopper passes. That meant we could also spend some time at California Adventure. I was very ready for a long miserable time in the lines. After all it was Disneyland in August, the height of the tourist season, on a Saturday.

We were surprised that it wasn’t nearly as bad as we had feared. There was a constant line at the new Finding Nemo submarine ride, and it was a 2 hour wait both times we checked in on it. It wouldn’t be worth it, especially in 95 degree weather with humidity that reminded us of North Carolina. So maybe next time. We did however hit a whole lot of other rides: Splash Mountain (my favorite of the day), tea cups, Mr Toad’s Wild Ride, Carousel, Toon Town, Small World, Pirates of the Caribbean, Indiana Jones, Honey I Shrunk the Audience… etc, etc.

The highlight of the day for Sabrina seemed to be at lunch when a worker bee was hunting for food at our table. She loved the little bug, and kept laughing and trying to catch him as both Emma and Ciel squirmed and swished their hands quickly whenever it came near. She’s got a strong beekeeper’s gene from both sides of the family and it was fun to watch her enjoying the bees. Maybe we’ll get her a beehive for her second birthday 🙂

Ciel had a great time on her first visit to the park, and she seemed so happy walking around in her pirate goofy hat all day! Emma and Hunter kept arguing over who would sit next to her on the rides, so she was a popular addition to the family!

We walked over to California Adventure at dinner time and it was so empty! We loved it because there were no crowds to navigate through and no lines. A Bug’s Land was a great area with lots of rides that we could take everyone on including Sabrina. And the best part of all was literally no waiting! Amazing!

We did have a little trouble at the Ferris Wheel that was a much longer wait than anticipated so unfortunately those waiting for it missed the Electric parade. Hannah, Sabrina and I were able to catch most of it, and Hannah waved at the characters the whole time and just loved the princesses. Especially Cinderella and Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs. After the parade we went back to Disneyland and caught the last of the fireworks show and hit one last ride. By then it was almost 11:00 so we packed it up and headed home. This morning it was tough to get up for 9:00 am church, but we made it, and on time too!

Everyone had such a blast and I hope there were lots of good memories for the kids!

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How It Should Have Ended

Ok, here’s a random post with a couple of funny videos. Credit goes to our friend, Heather from One Woman’s World, for first tipping us off to these. I thought they were really fun and had to post a couple of my favorites. There are more videos (and better resolution) at their website, HowItShouldHaveEnded.com. It’s amazing what you can do with a lot of talent and a lot of time on your hands. Enjoy!

Willy Wonka
httpvh://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsE0UOz1uw4

Superman
httpvh://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yavK0mnE3wI

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