Is 2008 when it happens?
Money Week, a website based in the UK, has an interesting article about the housing market. The claim is that the market cycles globally every 18 years and that we are due to hit bottom in 2008 resulting in a recession by 2010. It’s been said for a while that the bubble is about to burst, but it’s interesting that history does seem to repeat itself… We still have not entered the world of home ownership so the reduction in prices and an increase in inventory sounds nice!
“House prices can’t rise indefinitely for the simple reason that at some point they become unaffordable. Wages can’t rise as fast as house prices can when a speculative frenzy is underway, so there will come a point when the average man can’t buy the average house, and prices have to fall as a result. My research shows that this tends to work in 18-year cycles. There are usually 14 years of rising prices followed by four years of recession across the broader economy. I’ve looked at data across four continents and at 300 years of British economic history and it seems that this 18-year cycle is present across the globe, irrespective of the distinctive characteristics of each economy – whether the country is resource-rich (USA) or resource-poor (Japan), or whether the population is high density (the UK), or low density (Australia).
So when will the crunch really come? History suggests that things will start to collapse in 2008 (18 years on from 1990 when the last bubble burst)…the net result will be the arrival of recession by 2010…”
—Fred Harrison is executive director of the Land Research Trust in London.He is the author of Boom, Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010 (Shepheard Walwyn, 2005)
Read MoreClub Penguin
Club Penguin is Hunter’s and Emma’s favorite place to go online. It’s a great site for kids because it is so safe and there is zero advertising. The kids can sign up for a monthly fee and then live in the virtual penguin world. They have to “work” to earn coins and then they can spend the coins to buy things to decorate their igloos or for their pet “puffles.” The puffles have to be fed, exercised etc., and Hunter gets so bugged when he has to use his coins to buy them food. I like it because he’s learning about how the financial world works, except that work is actually playing games and more like fun. Hunter and Emma use their allowance to pay for the membership fee, so that’s another way they can practice their financial skills. The penguins can also have monitored interaction or chat with the other penguin friends. Hunter and his school friend have figured out times to meet online and they can chat and play together. Club Penguin recently announced that they are partnering up with Disney, so you may hear more about it now…
The Last Lecture
I have a second cousin, Tammy, who I really don’t know. But I am learning about her through her blog that documents her family’s current situation. Her husband Bryce was diagnosed with melanoma at age 26 as the result of years of lifeguarding in the sun. After a year of treatment he was said to be cancer-free. Now six years later, he and Tammy have been married for four years, and 8 weeks ago he was told that his cancer had returned with a vengeance. Their lives have been turned completely upside down as they struggle with finding new treatments, dealing with oxygen, blood transfusions, trips in and out of the hospital, and their baby girl. I have read her blog, cried, and reminded myself how lucky I am to have the blessing of a healthy family, a loving husband and four fantastic, beautiful children. We just never know what tomorrow will bring, and I have learned so much from her family. I so appreciate that she is willing to share her experiences with us.
With all of these thoughts in the back of my mind I was moved when I heard the story of Randy Pausch, a computer science professor who recently gave his last lecture. He was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and has just months left to live. His lecture is inspirational and embodies all of the things that he wants his three small children to know about their Dad. I am truly amazed at the grace I have seen in these two families as I have peeked into their lives. Their bravery and stamina is stunning.
Hug your family, spend time together and appreciate them… and then go put on some sunscreen!
httpvh://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8kUTUIveyA
Read MoreI Think She Likes It
Thank you!!!
Emma just loves her new American Girl Doll. Thanks so much to all that contributed to get her this group gift! She was so excited when she opened it, and hasn’t put it down except to sleep. And even then, the doll slept next to her in the little brass bed that Auntie Heather gave her. She stayed home from school today because she woke up with a “stomach ache” supposedly after eating all of the birthday treats. I think it was more of an American-Girl-ache. One clue is that she just said to me, “I don’t want to go to school tomorrow. I just want to stay home with my American Girl doll!” She will go tomorrow though. Emma has been filling out the little book that came with the doll she has named “Emy.” Emma also said earlier this morning, “I wouldn’t give up my doll for all the money in the world. Because everybody put their love into it.”
Read MoreToddler Talk
If you ever ask Hannah what her favorite ride was at Disneyland, she will always say, “Duh gondolas.” We rode on a ferris wheel at California Adventure that had the choice of a stationary or swinging gondola. I took the little girls on the stationary one and Rob took the big kids on the swinging one. I don’t know if it was the ride or the word that made the big impression on her, but she mentions the gondolas just about every day!
Sabrina’s favorite thing right now is Barbies. Or as she says, “Bah-ees.” She just can’t seem to get enough and carries them around with her whenever she gets the chance. Hannah is also very into them, but Sabrina is our first girl to take such an interest at such a young age. She has that mommy instinct for sure, and loves all things baby too. She is constantly bringing me little blankets and wanting her Barbies or babies swaddled up. Such cuties!
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